The global music industry could be even bigger than expected

Lucian Grainge: Leading the charge (Photo: Photoworks /

The GOLDMAN SACHS MUSIC IN THE AIR report suggests that the recorded music industry’s annual global trade revenue will increase by $53.2 billion by 2030, according to respected analyst LISA YANG.

That’s an increase of $7.5 billion from the company’s last projection of $45.7 billion. It’s also more than double the size of last year’s global record revenues ($25.9 billion) as counted by the IFPI.

GOLDMAN says this increase is due to “assumptions of higher paid streaming ARPU and ad-supported streaming as well as a lower decline in physical sales.” It also raised its forecast for the global music publishing industry.

Previously, GOLDMAN suggested that annual music publishing business revenue would reach $10.6 billion in 2030; now it is increasing that projection by $1 billion, to $11.6 billion.

This increase in forecast revenues from publishing is explained [projected] streaming, physical and performance revenue.

GOLDMAN now suggests that global music streaming revenues will reach $89.3 billion in 2030… with paid streaming contributing $55.6 billion of that figure and ad-supported streaming contributing $33.7 billion.

Live music projections for 2030 remain where they were, with a forecast that the global live music industry will generate $38.3 billion during the year.

GOLDMAN has slightly lowered its expectations for the total volume of paid music streaming subscribers worldwide.

GS previously projected that, by 2030, there would be 1.277 billion paid music streaming subscribers globally; it is now reduced to 1.260 billion.

GOLDMAN previously believed that in 2030, the annual ARPU of music subscribers worldwide would be $42.8 per year; it has now moved that figure up to $45.8.

The report concludes, “We expect catalog acquisition spending to slow in a rising rate environment, and as returns [on big-money catalog acquisition deals] will continue to be challenged, we believe majors have a significant competitive advantage in sourcing and monetizing their catalogs [than their rivals]. We expect consumer spending on music to remain resilient in a higher inflation and weaker macro environment.

“Our analysis shows that music remains one of the most under-monetized forms of entertainment, with spending still 40% below its historic peak, while consumption continues to grow year on year.”

New GOLDMAN report finds ad-generating ’emerging platforms’ – including FACEBOOK, TIKTOK, SNAPCHAT, INSTAGRAM REELS, various video games, podcasts and more – reportedly accounted for 30% of industry ad-supported revenue record world in 2021.

GOLDMAN expects these “emerging platforms” to account for 40% of the global recorded music industry’s ad-supported revenue by 2030, and 12% of total global recorded music revenue ( compared to 5% in 2021).

“While the traditional on-demand subscription model continues to dominate much of the music industry’s growth, we believe that advances in technology and the continued digitization of industries will further increase the ubiquity of music. music and create new monetization opportunities.”

“We estimate that 60% of emerging platform revenue in the music industry last year came from short video and/or social media.

“Additionally, these new platforms are also becoming important ways to amplify artists and set cultural trends, helping to increase the effectiveness of record labels’ A&R and marketing spend.”

Combined, GOLDMAN says he expects streaming price hikes along with ad revenue from these “emerging platforms” to more than offset the short-term negative economic impact on the music business. of “increased inflation, a weaker macro and the war in UKRAINE”.

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Alice P. Darby